What is Revelatio Directa?
TEP — Time Eligibility Protocol — reads financial stress before it becomes visible in price. Like a barometer: it does not say when the storm hits, but tells you the pressure is dropping — weeks in advance.
When you see ALERT or CRITICAL, you historically have 1–3 weeks before a significant market move. That is your window to act.
Signal levels — what to do at each
☢ CRITICAL
All three conditions active simultaneously: R above threshold, risk rising (TDI > 0.5), history incoherent (HCI < 0.5). Strongest pattern TEP can produce.
In all documented cases preceded a major move within days to 2 weeks. Act now.
⚠ ALERT
High stress confirmed and rising. R above threshold and trajectory pointing upward. Strong signal.
Historically precedes a significant move within 1–3 weeks. Monitor daily. Check direction.
◆ WATCH
Stress is building. R above minimum threshold but trajectory not yet confirmed. Early warning.
Monitor daily. Be ready to act if it escalates to ALERT.
● CALM
No stress detected. System operating normally across all timeframes.
No action needed. Check weekly.
Three warnings, one after another
Trouble does not arrive all at once. It shows up in three stages — and TEP lets you see the first two before the price ever moves. Think of it like a building starting to creak before it shifts.
Stage 1 · The first creak
The market loses its footing
One of TEP's gauges — how steady the market’s behaviour is — starts to slip below its own normal level and stays there. It is the earliest, quietest hint. On average it appears about a week before a full alert. Nothing to do yet — just start watching.
Stage 2 · The clear alert
A fresh alert after a calm stretch
Stress is now confirmed on every measure at once, right after a period of quiet. This is the signal you can actually act on: in testing it beats a coin-flip by about +11 points at flagging a drop that is coming. This is your window.
Stage 3 · Everyone sees it
The price finally moves
The market falls and it is on every screen. By now the warning is old news — too late to react calmly. The whole point of Stages 1 and 2 is to be ready before this one arrives.
The gap between Stage 1 and Stage 2 varies — usually about a week, sometimes a single day, sometimes three. Treat it as a heads-up to get ready, not a countdown clock. Measured on daily data with no peeking at the future.
Two validated layers — two warning horizons
TEP-D · Daily layer
Strategic Warning
Reads 90 days of daily OHLCV data (Stooq). Detects stress building over weeks. In the full backtest (5 coins, complete history) an ALERT+ warning preceded 27 of 27 major drawdowns — but recall is high mainly because the ALERT+ signal is active ~84% of the time, so treat it as a sensitive stress flag, not a rare precise trigger.
Backtest recall: 27/27 drawdowns · sensitive signal (ALERT+ on ~84% of days) · Window: 1–4 weeks
TEP-4H · Intraday layer
Tactical Warning
Reads 4-hour candles from Hyperliquid — live, updated every 4 hours. Across 22 intraday drop-events since 2024, ALERT+ fired on 21/22 (95%) and the earlier WATCH level on 9/22 (41%); for the events it did catch, the lead time averaged ~45h (up to 56h). It confirms TEP-D and narrows the window — but at the 4H scale false alarms are frequent, so it is not a precise timing trigger.
ALERT+ 21/22 (95%) · WATCH 9/22 (41%) · avg lead ~45h (max 56h) · frequent 4H false alarms
Reading direction — up or down?
Funding Rate
Above 0.05% → too many longs → market may fall
Negative → too many shorts → market may rise
Near zero → direction unclear
Long / Short Ratio
Above 60% long → contrarian: fall likely
Below 40% long → contrarian: rise likely
40–60% → balanced
Open Interest
Rising OI + rising price → uptrend confirmed
Rising OI + falling price → downtrend confirmed
Falling OI → move may be ending
Equity curve — TEP risk-off gate vs Buy & Hold (BTC 2018–2026)
−52%
Max Drawdown TEP gate
▬ TEP gate
▬ Buy & Hold
TEP level gate: cash on ALERT+ · 10.6% time in market
TEP gate holds BTC while calm and moves to cash when the daily TEP-30 level reaches ALERT or CRITICAL — the signal is known the previous day (no look-ahead). It re-enters once TEP falls back below ALERT. The gate gives up most of the upside for a much shallower drawdown: it is in the market only 10.6% of the time, so it is a survival / risk-off filter, not a return maximiser. Max drawdown measured on daily equity. Data: Stooq BTC daily 2018–2026.
Drawdown reduction — TEP risk-off gate vs Buy & Hold (5 coins, full history)
−89.9%
Max drawdown Buy & Hold
−63.8%
Max drawdown TEP gate
Methodology: honest equity-curve simulation, no look-ahead. Each day the position is set by the previous day’s TEP-30 level (daily bars). Buy & Hold = always invested; TEP gate = move to cash on ALERT or CRITICAL. Max drawdown = worst peak-to-trough decline on the equity curve. The gate trades lower return for a much shallower drawdown — it is a survival / risk-off filter, not a return maximiser. A free 200-day moving average posts a higher Calmar ratio (return per unit of risk) than TEP on 3 of 5 coins (BTC/ETH/SOL); TEP wins on BNB and XRP. TEP’s advantage is the depth of capital protection, not risk-adjusted return. Data: Stooq daily OHLCV, full available history per coin (BTC from 2014, others from 2017–2020) – 2026.
Crash detection — recall vs precision (5 coins, full history)
Strength — Recall
27 / 27
Crashes (>30%) flagged ALERT+ before the low
92.6%
Flagged early (before a 15% drop): 25 / 27
Limitation — Precision
50.0%
ALERT+ episodes followed by ≥20% drop in 90d
+6.4 pts
Edge over base rate (43.6% unconditional)
Strongest signal — Clean onset (tradeable)
54.6%
Precision of a fresh ALERT after ≥3 quiet days
+10.9 pts
Edge over base rate — vs +6.4 for raw ALERT+
262
Onsets (5 coins). Known at signal time — no look-ahead
Descriptive only: short, sharp ALERT bursts (≤2 days) score a higher precision (+14.7 pts) than clean onset (+10.9), but they are not tradeable in real time — you don’t know the burst length at the moment of the signal. Clean onset is the best tradeable trigger, not the best possible number.
Three-level early-warning cascade
LEVEL 1 — HCI declines
History coherence drops below its 30-day average and stays there. Median ~7 days before ALERT (pooled 8.5 avg, n=258) — but partly definitional: HCI is one of the inputs to the ALERT threshold, so this lead is not a fully independent predictor. Earliest, softest read — go from watching to ready.
LEVEL 2 — Clean onset ALERT
All three layers (R, TDI, HCI) confirm tension. The tradeable trigger — +10.9 pts precision over chance.
LEVEL 3 — Price moves
The market starts falling. Too late to position defensively — the seismograph already fired twice.
Lead time is wide (IQR 1–14 days) and mildly circular (HCI feeds the ALERT threshold), so it stages readiness — not a countdown clock. No look-ahead: rolling TEP-30 only.
| Coin |
Crashes |
Warned |
Early |
ALERT+ prec. |
Clean-onset prec. |
Base rate |
Clean-onset edge |
No look-ahead. Recall: a crash (>30% peak-to-trough) is “flagged” if TEP-30 reached ALERT or CRITICAL before the low; “early” means the flag fired before price had fallen 15% from the peak. Precision: an ALERT+ onset is a “true” alarm if price fell ≥20% within 90 days; base rate is how often any random day precedes such a drop. Raw ALERT+ is on most of the time, so it only edges the base rate by ~6 points. The clean onset — a fresh ALERT+ after ≥3 quiet (WATCH/CALM) days — is a sharper, tradeable variant that nearly doubles the edge to +10.9 points (though it is noisier per coin: XRP +24, BNB −6). TEP is a stress / survival reader with strong crash-recall; the clean onset is its most precise trigger, not a guaranteed timer. Data: Stooq daily, full history per coin – 2026.