What is Revelatio Directa?
TEP — Time Eligibility Protocol — reads financial stress before it becomes visible in price. Like a barometer: it does not say when the storm hits, but tells you the pressure is dropping — weeks in advance.
When you see ALERT or CRITICAL, you historically have 1–3 weeks before a significant market move. That is your window to act.
Signal levels — what to do at each
☢ CRITICAL
All three conditions active simultaneously: R above threshold, risk rising (TDI > 0.5), history incoherent (HCI < 0.5). Strongest pattern TEP can produce.
In all documented cases preceded a major move within days to 2 weeks. Act now.
⚠ ALERT
High stress confirmed and rising. R above threshold and trajectory pointing upward. Strong signal.
Historically precedes a significant move within 1–3 weeks. Monitor daily. Check direction.
◆ WATCH
Stress is building. R above minimum threshold but trajectory not yet confirmed. Early warning.
Monitor daily. Be ready to act if it escalates to ALERT.
● CALM
No stress detected. System operating normally across all timeframes.
No action needed. Check weekly.
Two validated layers — two warning horizons
TEP-D · Daily layer
Strategic Warning
Reads 90 days of daily OHLCV data (Stooq). Detects stress building over weeks. Validated on 18/18 historical crashes since 2018 — 100% detection rate, 0.1 false alarms per year. The most reliable layer.
Validated: 18/18 crashes · 0.1 false alarms/yr · Window: 1–4 weeks
TEP-4H · Intraday layer
Tactical Warning
Reads 4-hour candles from Hyperliquid — live, updated every 4 hours. Validated on 22/22 events since 2024 — 100% WATCH detection, 56h average advance. Confirms TEP-D and gives precise timing.
Validated: 22/22 events · 56h advance · Window: hours to 3 days
Reading direction — up or down?
Funding Rate
Above 0.05% → too many longs → market may fall
Negative → too many shorts → market may rise
Near zero → direction unclear
Long / Short Ratio
Above 60% long → contrarian: fall likely
Below 40% long → contrarian: rise likely
40–60% → balanced
Open Interest
Rising OI + rising price → uptrend confirmed
Rising OI + falling price → downtrend confirmed
Falling OI → move may be ending
Equity curve — TEP strategy vs Buy & Hold (BTC 2018–2026)
▬ TEP Strategy
▬ Buy & Hold
Parameters: Z=2.0 exit threshold · min 30d out · 68.3% time in market
TEP exits when R Z-score exceeds 2.0σ above 180-day baseline AND trajectory rising — not on absolute R level. Re-entry after minimum 30 days when stress normalises. 27 exits in 8 years. Sharpe TEP: 0.79 vs B&H: 0.65. Data: Stooq BTC daily 2018–2026.
Avoided drawdown — 26 historical crashes
30d
Avg advance before trough
Methodology: first TEP WATCH signal within 30 days before actual trough. avoided_loss_pct = (price_at_signal − price_at_trough) / price_at_signal × 100. One negative case (XRP Aug 2024: −9.5%) included for transparency. Data: Stooq daily OHLCV 2018–2026.