Revelatio Directa — Equities
TEP — Time Eligibility Protocol — reads financial stress before it becomes visible in price. Like a barometer: it does not say when the storm hits or in which direction, but tells you the pressure is dropping — weeks in advance.
The same mathematics that detects crypto crashes also works on traditional markets. Validated on 9 of 9 major SP500 crises since 2000 — with an average of 16 trading days advance warning.
Two validated layers
TEP-D · Daily layer
Strategic — weeks ahead
Reads 90 days of daily OHLCV data (Stooq). Detects stress building over weeks. Flagged all 9 of 9 major S&P 500 crises since 2000 — but the signal is read from the VIX volatility series, which sits at ALERT+ on ~57% of days, so full recall rides a high base rate. Treat it as a reliable stress flag, not a rare precise trigger.
Flagged: 9/9 crises · sensitive signal (VIX ALERT+ ~57% of days) · Window: 1–4 weeks
TEP-D · VIX layer
Macro — fear trajectory
Uses VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) as the stress input — the same data used in the original SP500 validation. When VIX trajectory accelerates faster than its 30-day norm, TEP signals before VIX itself shows as elevated.
Source: Stooq daily · Updated: once per day · Window: 1–4 weeks
Alert levels
● CALM
No stress detected. Market operating normally.
No action needed. Check weekly.
◐ WATCH
Stress starting to build. Not alarming yet.
Check daily. Review position sizes.
⚠ ALERT
Stress confirmed and rising. Historical pattern active.
1–4 weeks to significant move. Check Long/Short tab for direction.
⚡ CRITICAL
All conditions met simultaneously. Rare but significant.
Act within days. Check macro calendar immediately.
TEP and direction — what it tells you and what it does not
What TEP tells you
That tension is building. That something is coming. That the system is under pressure. Historically, a significant move — up or down — follows within 1–4 weeks of an ALERT.
What TEP does not tell you
Which direction. A CRITICAL can precede a crash (Liberation Day 2025: SP500 -10%) or an explosive rally (tariff pause April 9 2025: SP500 +9.5% in one day).
Long and Short — which one is for you
Long
For someone who holds positions long-term and wants to know when to reduce exposure. Rising tension is your cue to trim risk before a move — not to trade in and out.
Short
For an active trader looking for the moment of a correction. Peak tension marks the window where a sharp move becomes likely, so you can position for the reversal.
Equities are not crypto here. On stocks a clean onset of tension does not work like it does in crypto — the signal more often marks a local rebound low than the start of a further drop (exceptions: high-beta names like NVDA, TSLA). Treat it as a risk-reduction signal, not a short-entry trigger. Reason: equities have structural upward drift and fast mean-reversion, so stress often marks capitulation rather than the top.
Direction indicators — equities
| Indicator | What it measures | Bearish signal | Bullish signal |
|---|
| VIX level | Market fear index | VIX rising above 25 and accelerating | VIX falling from elevated levels |
| Yield curve (T10Y2Y) | Economic slowdown signal | Deeply inverted (below -0.5%) | Normalising from inversion |
| Put/Call ratio | Options market sentiment | Above 1.2 — too many puts, crash fear | Below 0.7 — complacency, watch for reversal |
| Price vs 200MA | Long-term trend direction | SP500 below 200-day moving average | SP500 above 200-day moving average |
| Macro calendar | Known upcoming events | Fed hawkish decision, bad CPI data | Fed pivot, strong employment data |
SP500 validation — 9 of 9 crises detected (2000–2026)
| Crisis | Peak date | Max drop | TEP-30 at peak | Result |
|---|
| Dot-com peak | 2000-03-24 | -49.1% | 1.721 | ✓ Detected |
| GFC 2008 | 2007-10-09 | -56.8% | 1.589 | ✓ Detected |
| Flash Crash 2010 | 2010-04-23 | -16.0% | 1.510 | ✓ Detected |
| Euro debt crisis 2011 | 2011-04-29 | -19.4% | 3.487 | ✓ Detected |
| China scare 2015 | 2015-08-21 | -12.4% | 2.311 | ✓ Detected |
| COVID 2020 | 2020-02-19 | -33.9% | 2.493 | ✓ Detected · 34 days advance |
| Inflation 2022 | 2022-01-03 | -25.4% | 3.733 | ✓ Detected |
| SVB 2023 | 2023-02-02 | -7.7% | 0.994 | ✓ WATCH level |
| Liberation Day 2025 | 2025-02-19 | -18.9% | 2.903 | ✓ Detected · 22 days advance |
Data source: VIX from FRED Federal Reserve. All data publicly available and verifiable. Formula: whitepaper v3, parameters unchanged. Method: TEP-30 is computed on the VIX volatility series — the stress input. On the S&P 500 price series alone the WATCH level is triggered on almost every day, so the crisis signal is read from VIX, not from index price. TEP flags building stress; it is not a precise timing trigger.
LONG VIEW
For investors holding positions long-term · BUY/SELL/WAIT based on stress + direction
System Stress
All layers combined
STRESS WINDOW
30d · 7d · 3d
Monthly stress
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Direction Indicators
Price vs 200MA--
Long-term trend
Long strategy
CALM/WATCH: Hold positions. No action needed.
ALERT: Consider reducing exposure 30–50%. Not a full exit.
CRITICAL: Reduce to comfortable level. Act within days.
SHORT VIEW
For traders looking for correction opportunities · All three conditions must align for SHORT signal
System Stress
All layers combined
Monthly stress
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Short conditions checklist
○ TEP ALERT or CRITICAL
○ VIX rising above 20
○ Yield curve inverted or flat
○ Price below 200MA or breaking down
○ Macro catalyst present
Short signal requires 3+ conditions simultaneously
Direction Indicators
Price vs 200MA--
Long-term trend
Top Stocks — TEP signals
TEP stress for the largest companies by market cap. These are not investment recommendations — they are tension indicators for companies investors commonly hold in their portfolios. They show when an individual stock is under pressure, not whether to buy or sell it. If you hold any of these, check before the market moves.
Data updated daily · Source: Yahoo Finance
Indices — market thermometer
Technology
Finance & Other
How to read: Each card shows the current TEP stress level.
🟢 CALM — no tension detected.
🟡 WATCH — stress starting to build, check daily.
🔴 ALERT — confirmed stress, 1–4 weeks to potential move.
🔴 CRITICAL — act within days.
TEP does not say which direction. ALERT can precede a drop or a sharp rise. Use with macro context and your own judgment.